War on Iran May Trigger Economic Strain Across Africa
The study, compiled by regional and international institutions, highlights that continued disruptions to key shipping lanes, along with instability in energy and fertilizer supplies, risk worsening existing trade pressures on the continent.
“More broadly, the conflict, which already has triggered a trade shock, could quickly turn into a cost-of-living crisis across Africa through higher fuel and food prices, rising shipping and insurance costs, exchange rate pressures, and tighter fiscal conditions,” the document states.
According to the findings, the Strait of Hormuz has remained largely obstructed since the launch of US and Israeli air operations against Iran in late February, contributing to the strain on global supply chains.
The report emphasizes that interruptions to liquefied natural gas supplies could have particularly severe consequences. Reduced LNG availability would impact the production of key agricultural inputs such as ammonia and urea, increasing fertilizer prices and limiting availability during the critical planting period between March and May.
Projections in the study suggest that if the conflict persists beyond six months, Africa’s overall economic growth could decline by approximately 0.2% by the end of 2026. This is significant given the Middle East’s role as a major trading partner, accounting for a notable share of both imports and exports, according to reports.
Despite these challenges, some countries may experience limited economic advantages. Nigeria could benefit from rising oil prices and increased output from the Dangote Refinery, while Mozambique might see gains from renewed activity in its liquefied natural gas sector and higher port usage.
The analysis also notes that alternative shipping routes, such as those around the Cape of Good Hope, could increase maritime traffic in countries like South Africa, Namibia, and Mauritius. In East Africa, Kenya may strengthen its position as a regional logistics hub, while Ethiopia could take advantage of its strategic location as an “emergency air bridge” through Ethiopian Airlines.
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